Reproduced
from The Melchior System web site, with the kind permission of the author,
Roy Wharton.
"I have been involved in racing
for many years (more than I care to remember) and during that time I
have owned horses and known trainers and jockeys, as well as other owners.
I have backed horses, tipped horses, invented systems, used private
information. You name it - I have been involved in it.
Only twice, however, have I been seriously involved in systems that
have relied solely upon the mathematics of betting, the first time during
the 1960s and the second only in the last three years.
To begin with the first 'involvement', I am sure that you are aware
that, even on current terms, many bookmakers regard each-way betting
as a 'loss leader'.
In other words, as a stand-alone
bet, they would prefer not to take each-way business. Obviously, bookmaking
is a very competitive business and, what one industry leader does, the
others have to follow so they all do it. That is at one-fifth the odds
against the place half of the bet.
It was different in the 1960s in the days before betting tax. The industry
standard was one quarter the odds for all races with eight runners or
more and, although I cannot claim that I organised it, I was involved
with a major ring (including several bookmakers) who staked massive
sums in each-way bets (spread throughout the country) on the right races.
I turned over several thousand pounds each week and made a steady 15%
to 20% profit -I can tell you that this represented a lot of money in
those days. Every bet was each-way and we frequently backed two horses
in the same race. Week after week the profits rolled in. I need hardly
say that, quite quickly, my credit accounts were closed and I had to
resort to cash betting. Even that was not always easy. However, we persisted.
We had found a mathematical weak link in bookmaking mathematics and
were enjoying the benefits of having done so. The months rolled by.
The whole scheme came to a sudden end courtesy of Her Majesty's Government.
Betting tax was introduced and all the mathematics went out of the window.
As we are all aware now, this massive and ill-considered tax not only
spoiled our little scheme but it drove huge volumes of UK business overseas
or underground. The damage was done and, although the tax was discontinued
only 30 short years later, each-way terms are now one fifth the odds
instead of one quarter - a massive, massive difference if you were doing
what we were doing. |
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